Weak or not? Can and will Hezbollah join possible Iran war?

Western diplomats have reportedly failed to secure a firm promise from Hezbollah to stay out of a potential conflict between the U.S. and Iran.

A media report claimed that diplomats have sought guarantees from Hezbollah in recent weeks but only received a vague answer and no guarantees.

Hezbollah said it won't intervene unless Iran is in an "existential" danger, the report said.

- Can they still fight? -

When Hezbollah opened hostilities with Israel in October 2023, its arsenal was reputedly larger than the Lebanese army's, and experts estimated it included ballistic missiles, as well as rockets, anti-aircraft, anti-tank and anti-ship missiles.

The group's arsenal was degraded considerably as a result of the latest war and continued frequent strikes by the Israelis against its arms depots.

Intelligence reports indicate that the group has lost a lot of its heavy arsenal -- the heavy long-range missiles, with estimates it has lost "about 70 per cent" of its capabilities.

The December ouster of longtime Syrian ruler Bashar al-Assad, a close Hezbollah ally, dealt a further blow to the group, with chief Sheikh Naim Qassem admitting it lost a military supply line.

Syria's new authorities have since made several announcements of thwarting weapons shipments to Lebanon.

"However, Hezbollah has been trying to build some weapons domestically. It has workshops locally to build things like Katyusha missiles," military expert Riad Kahwaji said.

Experts previously said Hezbollah had around 150,000 rockets before the latest round of fighting and an underground tunnel network in south Lebanon, as well as in the eastern Bekaa Valley near the Syrian border.

Officials have said the Lebanese army has sealed off Hezbollah tunnels since the ceasefire, while Israel kept targeting near daily what it said where tunnels, and weapons depots, even after the ceasefire reached in November 2024.

Former Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in an Israeli strike in September 2024, said domestic production contributed to his group's large stockpile of drones, which it used extensively during the latest war.

Kahwaji said the group has the know-how and "ability to assemble drones" and clearly "is trying to build its drone capability".

Nasrallah said Hezbollah could count on more than 100,000 fighters, twice as many as estimated by the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

The year-long hostilities killed more than 4,000 people. Among the dead were hundreds of Hezbollah fighters and a slew of senior commanders.