KSA signs mutual defense pact with nuclear-armed Pakistan after Israeli attack on Qatar

Saudi Arabia and nuclear-armed Pakistan have signed a mutual defense pact that defines any attack on either nation as an attack on both — a key accord in the wake of Israel's strike on Qatar last week.

The kingdom has long had close economic, religious and security ties to Pakistan, including reportedly providing funding for Islamabad's nuclear weapons program as it developed. Analysts — and Pakistani diplomats in at least one case — have suggested over the years that Saudi Arabia could be included under Islamabad's nuclear umbrella, particularly as tensions have risen over Iran's atomic program.

But the timing of the pact appeared to be a signal to Israel, long suspected to be the Middle East's only nuclear-armed state, which has conducted a sprawling military offensive since Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel stretching across Iran, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Qatar, Syria and Yemen.

Israel did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The pact marks the first major defense decision by a Gulf Arab country since the Qatar attack. The United States, long the security guarantor for the Gulf Arab states, also did not immediately acknowledge the agreement.

A deal signed in Riyadh

Saudi Arabia's powerful Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman signed the pact on Wednesday with Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

While not specifically discussing the bomb, the agreement states "any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both," according to statements issued by both Pakistan's Foreign Affairs Ministry and the state-run Saudi Press Agency.

"This agreement ... aims to develop aspects of defense cooperation between the two countries and strengthen joint deterrence against any aggression," the statement said.

A senior Saudi official, speaking on condition of anonymity to The Financial Times, suggested that Pakistan's nuclear protection was a part of the deal, which "will utilize all defensive and military means deemed necessary depending on the specific threat."

Zalmay Khalilzad, a former U.S. diplomat with long experience in Afghanistan and Pakistan, expressed concern over the deal, saying it comes in "dangerous times."

"Pakistan has nuclear weapons and delivery systems that can hit targets across the Middle East, including Israel. It also is developing systems that can reach targets in the U.S.," Khalizad wrote on X.

A long defense relationship

Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have a defense relationship stretching back decades, in part due to Islamabad's willingness to defend the Islamic holy sites of Mecca and Medina in the kingdom. Pakistani troops first traveled to Saudi Arabia in the late 1960s over concerns about Egypt's war in Yemen at the time.

Those ties increased after Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution and the kingdom's fears of a confrontation with Tehran.

Pakistan developed its nuclear weapons program to counter India's atomic bombs. The two neighbors have fought multiple wars against each other and again came close to open warfare after an attack on tourists in April in Indian-controlled Kashmir. India is believed to have an estimated 172 nuclear warheads, while Pakistan has 170, according to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.

On Thursday, India's Foreign Ministry acknowledged the Saudi-Pakistan pact and said it "will study the implications of this development for our national security as well as for regional and global stability." Saudi Arabia also maintains close ties with India.

An interest in Pakistan's program

Retired Pakistani Brig. Gen. Feroz Hassan Khan, in his book on his country's nuclear weapons program called "Eating Grass: The Making of the Pakistani Bomb," said Saudi Arabia provided "generous financial support to Pakistan that enabled the nuclear program to continue, especially when the country was under sanctions."

In a 2007 U.S. diplomatic cable published by WikiLeaks, American diplomats in Saudi Arabia noted that their Pakistani counterparts had brought up the idea of the kingdom pursuing a weapons program alongside Islamabad.

"According to these officials, they understand that (Saudi Arabia) does want to protect itself and the region, and since, in their opinion, some of the other regional players — specifically Egypt — are unable to develop such weapons systems due to financial constraints, it is logical for the Saudis to step in as the physical 'protector' just as they have been increasingly stepping in as peace mediators in various regional conflicts," the cable read.

Both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia did not respond to questions from The Associated Press on Thursday on whether the pact extended to Islamabad's nuclear weapons arsenal.

How Iran ties in

Saudi Arabia has sought U.S. assistance to advance a civilian nuclear power program, in part with what had been a proposed diplomatic recognition deal with Israel prior to the 2023 Hamas attack. That could allow Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium in the kingdom — something that worries nonproliferation experts as spinning centrifuges opens the door to a possible weapons program.

Prince Mohammed has said the kingdom would pursue a nuclear weapon if Iran had one. The kingdom already is believed to have a domestic ballistic missile program, which can be a delivery system for a nuclear weapon. However, Saudi Arabia is a member of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and isn't known to have move toward acquiring the bomb through its own work.

Before the defense pact was signed, Iran dispatched Ali Larijani, a senior political figure who now serves as the secretary of the country's Supreme National Security Council, to visit Saudi Arabia. That may have seen the kingdom acknowledge the pact to Tehran, with which it has had a Chinese-mediated détente with Iran since 2023.