What options for Hezbollah after govt's decision to disarm it?

The government has decided to task the army with setting a plan to disarm Hezbollah.

AFP looks at how the government's decision may be implemented, and whether the Iran-backed militant group can still block it.

- Why is the move important? -

Tuesday's announcement was the first time a Lebanese government has announced it would disarm Hezbollah, the only armed faction that kept its weapons in the aftermath of the 1975-1990 civil war.

Hezbollah has kept its arms in the name of resistance against Israel, which occupied Lebanon's south until 2000.

The decision effectively strips Hezbollah's weapons arsenal of political legitimacy, breaking with past government statements that recognized the "resistance" alongside the Lebanese army.

The balance of power in Lebanon has shifted after a recent war between Israel and Hezbollah left the group badly weakened, and after the fall of the group's close ally Bashar al-Assad in neighboring Syria.

Unprecedented Israeli strikes on Hezbollah backer Iran in June have further weakened its stance.

Previous moves to limit or do away with Hezbollah's weapons and logistical network have led to major political and security crises.

In May 2008, when the Lebanese government decided to shut down the group's wired communications network, clashes erupted with Hezbollah using its weapons against political opponents in Beirut and beyond. The violence killed at least 65 people.

The group's arsenal has remained a divisive issue in Lebanon, with opponents demanding the state control all territories and the government have the sole power to declare war and peace.

- What can Hezbollah do? -

Hezbollah on Wednesday rejected the government's decision, calling it a "grave sin" and saying it will treat it "as if it did not exist".

But the armed group has few choices, which all appear to come at a great cost.

Hezbollah could escalate politically by having the four ministers affiliated with it and its allies resign. It could also disrupt the work of parliament, or incite chaos by mobilizing its armed supporters to the streets.

Any domestic unrest blamed on Hezbollah would likely have major repercussions for the group's image among Lebanese.

"Hezbollah, as much as possible, would want to reduce the chance of itself entering a confrontation with the army, because it knows that the entire country would be against it except for its supporters," said David Wood, a senior Lebanon analyst at the International Crisis Group.

"It would be an absolute disaster for its image," he added.

Hezbollah lawmaker Ali Ammar dismissed the possibility of any confrontation with the army, saying the two forces "understand" each other.

Hezbollah could relaunch attacks against Israel, but this option could easily prove devastating with the country still reeling from last year's war.

"Going into war right now, again, will be very devastating to Hezbollah because it does not have a supply line. It lost a lot with the collapse of the Syrian regime," said military analyst Riad Kahwaji.

"Its intelligence capabilities, its logistical capabilities have all been severely affected."

The war with Israel saw much of Hezbollah's senior leadership killed and a large part of its military arsenal destroyed, as did swathes of Beirut, Lebanon's south and other areas.

Receiving weapons shipments from Iran via Syria has become more difficult as Lebanese and Syrian authorities have tightened border controls, and funding has come under stricter oversight.

Hezbollah could agree to disarm, but a Lebanese source had told AFP it "would not do so without something in return".

Tehran's position may also affect any decision.

The Lebanese group may "play for time", according to Atlantic Council researcher Nicholas Blanford.

"They can't fully disarm. I think that's impossible for Hezbollah."

- How will Lebanon be affected? -

Lebanon is under intense Arab and Western pressure to disarm non-state actors, a key demand to secure international support as it emerges from years of political and economic crises.

"We must choose: either collapse or stability," President Joseph Aoun said last week.

Should Hezbollah insist on keeping its arsenal, Beirut will find itself in a difficult position.

"If Hezbollah is determined to keep the weapons, this would be very difficult for the Lebanese government to force it to give them up," said Blanford.

"If they can't do it politically," the researcher said the government would not "send the Lebanese army against Hezbollah".

"So it has to be a question of a compromise and some kind of agreement, which is not going to be easy."

Meanwhile, Israel has already signaled it would not hesitate to launch destructive military operations if Lebanon fails to disarm Hezbollah, as stipulated in the ceasefire agreement that ended their latest war.