The raging war between Israel and Hamas is already battering the economies of nearby countries, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund told a Saudi investor forum on Wednesday.
Israel's neighbors are feeling the effects, especially those that rely on tourism, Kristalina Georgieva said at the Future Investment Initiative (FII) in the Saudi capital Riyadh.
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Tensions from the war in Gaza could help accelerate the move away from planet-warming fossil fuels like oil and gas and toward renewable energy, electric cars and heat pumps — similar to how sharp increases in the price of oil during the 1970s unleashed efforts to conserve fuel, the head of the International Energy Agency said.
"Today we are again facing a crisis in the Middle East that could once again shock oil markets," said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. That comes on top of the stress on energy markets from Russia's cutoff of natural gas to Europe over its invasion of Ukraine, he said.
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For months after Ukraine's Western allies limited sales of Russian oil to $60 per barrel, the price cap was still largely symbolic. Most of Moscow's crude — its main moneymaker — cost less than that.
But the cap was there in case oil prices rose — and would keep the Kremlin from pocketing extra profits to fund its war in Ukraine. That time has now come, putting the price cap to its most serious test so far and underlining its weaknesses.
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Fifty years after the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the current crisis in the Middle East has the potential to disrupt global oil supplies and push prices higher. But don't expect a repeat of the catastrophic price hikes and long lines at the gasoline pump, experts say.
The Israel-Hamas war is "definitely not good news" for oil markets already stretched by cutbacks in oil production from Saudi Arabia and Russia and expected stronger demand from China, the head of the International Energy Agency said.
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Markets fell in Europe and Asia and oil prices surged Wednesday after an air strike on a hospital in Gaza triggered protests in many parts of the Middle East.
U.S. futures fell and the price of gold jumped more than $22.
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China is hosting its third international forum centered around President Xi Jinping's signature policy, the Belt and Road Initiative, which over the past 10 years has built infrastructure across continents, burdening some smaller countries with debt.
The forum brings a flurry of diplomacy to Beijing, including at least 20 heads of state and government, mostly hailing from developing markets in Southeast and South Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America.
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Wall Street pointed toward losses early Tuesday as corporate earnings roll in and worries about war in the Middle East hang over markets.
Futures for the S&P 500 and Dow industrials slipped 0.2% before the bell.
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Leaders of emerging market countries are arriving in Beijing for a meeting organized by the Chinese government that will mark the 10th anniversary of its Belt and Road Initiative.
More than a dozen leaders from Africa, Asia and the Mideast were flying into Beijing on Monday, following the arrivals of Chilean President Gabriel Boric and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on Sunday. Others are coming on Tuesday.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to meet this week with Chinese leaders in Beijing on a visit that underscores China's support for Moscow during its war in Ukraine.
The two countries have forged an informal alliance against the United States and other democratic nations that is now complicated by the Israel-Hamas war. China has sought to balance its ties with Israel with its economic relations with Iran and Syria, which are strongly backed by Russia.
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Middle East economies are gradually recovering as external shocks from the war in Ukraine and global inflation fade, the International Monetary Fund said Thursday, but the escalating war between Israel and the Hamas militant group could dampen the outlook.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the organization was closely monitoring the economic impact of the war, especially on oil markets, where prices have fluctuated.
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